Tourism in the 21st century: engine of world growth ( 71,61 KB )

 

Potential growth of tourist sector high, especially in developing countries

  Tourism is a sector which can provide a major economic drive for developing countries. Through tourism it is possible to obtain an inflow of foreign currency without making huge investment sand without having the most advanced technologies, while at the same time creating a high volume of employment. These inflows represent a substantial aid for the importation of goods and services necessary for development to those sectors with higher value added or a higher level of technology. In the case of Spain, this is a paradigm. Tourism played a major role in its development in the 60’s, contributing to allow the Spanish economy to put itself, in a few decades, among the group of advanced countries. Today, the tourist sector continues to play a major role in the country’s economy. As opposed to the middle of the last century, however, the higher income level of the population today makes it possible for Spain to also be a notable source market for tourists.

  The role tourism has represented in the development of Spain’s economy is also taking place in other developing economies. The forecasts by the World Tourism Organization indicate that in the initial decades of the current century the rapid growth of tourism will continue with a growth rate in the number of international tourists slightly above the rate of increase in the world gross domestic product. Nevertheless, this growth will not be equally distributed. Outstanding among those areas receiving tourism we see Oriental Asia and the Pacific which, with growth well above the average rate, will exceed the American hemisphere as the second major receiving region, going to a quota of 25% in 2020 as against 18% for that area. Africa and the Middle East also present good prospects with growth above average. With regard to Europe, while it is believed that growth will be below the average, it will continue to be the most visited region in the world. Its market share will go from 60% in 1995 to 46% in 2020.

  By country, the biggest receiving areas today will remain at the head of the classification but there will be changes. China will go up to heading the classification. Another notable contender for a leading place will be the Russian Federation which will come into 9th position.

  The higher economic growth of the emerging countries will mean that substantial levels of the population in various parts of the world will spend part of their income on trips abroad. As a result, there will also be changes in the make-up of source areas of tourists. In the early decades of the 21st century the increase in demand for international travel arising from Eastern Asia and the Pacific will mean that this region will come to be the second tourist source thus replacing the American Hemisphere. In spite of lower growth, Europe will continue to be the largest source area in the world, with a 47% share. By country, the main change is that China will move into fourth place, with a forecast of 100 million trips in 2020, mainly to nearby destinations.

  On the other hand, the «sun and beaches» segment will take on greater importance in far-off destinations. At the same time, it is expected that the demand for holidays combined with tourist trips of special interest will increase. Adventure tourism will take on greater importance because of increased awareness of the value of the environment. Cultural tourism is also expected to become popular with the ageing of the baby-boom generation. At the same time, pleasure tourism provided by cruise ships will show a notable increase given that this makes it possible to visit various places in a short time. Theme parks, which bring together many activities, will also maintain growth.

  Furthermore, among the trends indicated for the early decades of this century attention is given to technological developments. These, for example, allow immediate interactive access to travel plans through Internet. It is also expected that technological advances will reduce transportation costs and therefore foster travel demand. The trend in work and social customs with the tendency to split up holidays will encourage more distant and more frequent trips with shorter stays. On the other hand, the desire for trips offering unique experiences will take on greater importance.

  Finally, the growth potential of tourism is very high, especially in the developing countries. For this to happen, however, certain conditions must be met. Among these conditions, establishing a stable economic and socio-political environment is absolutely essential. Those places that are seen as dangerous for visitor safety, either from the threat of terrorist bombings or kidnappings or from health risks, will not be able to make progress as tourist destinations. Such risks have to be controlled by the local authorities but in these days of globalization multilateral coordination in also needed. In the new millennium we have already seen some global shocks, such as that in the United States on September 11, 2001 or the SARS outbreak in Asia in 2003.

  Fortunately, measures taken made it possible that the tourist sector was only temporarily affected and its growth has continued. In order for this to benefit developing countries, however, it will also be necessary for them to invest more in infrastructures and in tourist promotion. If these requirements are met, the future of tourism looks brilliant and it could be an important engine of world growth.

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