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Economic activity
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OECD forecasts high growth rate over short term
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OECD draws very favourable picture for Spain’s economy over short term...
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The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) foresees that Spain's gross domestic product will continue to grow by more than 3% this year and next (3.3% in 2007 and 3.1% in 2008). In the analysis this body with headquarters in Paris makes each year and a half, the OECD estimates that both national demand and the foreign sector will tend to gradually moderate although the latter will come close to 9.6% of the GDP in 2008. The growth rate of economic activity will make it possible for the unemployment rate to near 7.5% in 2008, an important milestone in the recent history of Spain.
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...but much less positive for following decades if some basic imbalances not corrected.
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But congratulations are not handed out in all quarters. The OECD also expressed its concern about the slow improvement in productivity and the erosion of competitiveness of Spain's economy. Should those anomalies continue, the potential growth of Spain's economy, which stood at the threshold of 3.5% in the period 1997-2006, would drop to 1.9% over the next ten years and could even drop to 1.3% in the following decade. If these predictions turn out to be true, the advance enjoyed by Spain's economy in recent years as part of the process of convergence with the average per capita GDP of the Euro Area could come to an end.
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OECD also concerned about trend in real estate market and household indebtedness.
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Another key factor that caught the attention of the OECD is the situation in the Spanish real estate market. According to that body, housing prices are overvalued and to correct this situation it advocates balancing the incentives for both ownership and rental. It would not rule out some unpopular measures such as the gradual removal of supports given for home ownership (made available mainly through tax deductions). The growth of mortgage loans and the level of household indebtedness are also aspects that concern the OECD.
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At this moment, housing prices have moved into a downturn, as indicated in the following section. Figures for the financial accounts of households and non-profit organizations for the third quarter of 2006, however, do not indicate a change in the trend. In the period mentioned, the proportion of disposable income of Spanish households going into consumption rose and, as a result, the part reserved for savings dropped. On top of this, as investment spending (mainly for home purchase) grew at the same time, household deficits continued to increase. This stands in contrast to the situation before 2003 when it was precisely households that provided financing for the rest of the economy.
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Economic activity indicators: growth signs predominate
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Strong pulse in construction...
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At the end of 2006, the main economic activity indicators continued to show a strong expansionist profile. The background trends suggested this would continue or, at the very most, turn into a slight easing off in coming months, along the lines indicated by the OECD.
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In the final months of 2006, industry had fully consolidated its recovery with increases in the general production index of more than 4%. In December, for the first time in many months, the sector confidence index reached a positive figure, thanks to the favourable situation in order books and the excellent prospects for production in the immediate future.
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Construction also continues expansionist, according to the showing in the main indicators for that economic sector. Cement consumption, for example, rose by 8.4% year-to-year in the final quarter. Other early indicators, such as approvals for new construction projects and government tendering, also reflect notable growth. It should be pointed out that, in the period between October 2005 and September 2006 (the last month for which figures are available), construction began on more than 728,000 new housing units, an all-time absolute record.
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...in contrast to signs of greater easing off coming from real estate market.
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This strong drive in construction stands in contrast to signs of more moderation from the real estate market. In the last quarter of 2006, the average price of non-subsidized housing per square metre showed a drop in annual growth rate to 9.1%, nearly four points less than one year earlier. This was a continuation of the slowdown which began in 2005. In addition, according to figures supplied by the Ministry of Housing, growth in the number of real estate transactions has also continued to ease off. In the third quarter, this growth was only 2.4% compared with the same period in 2005. Overall, the situation seems to be following a scenario of gradual moderation and for now the possibility of a more traumatic correction seems more remote.
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With regard to services, we note generally sustained growth in nearly all sectors. The drive is especially strong in transport and company services (which include temporary work companies), according to the expansionist profile of business volume indices. The trend in confidence indicator prepared by the European Commission offers a similar interpretation.
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In the specific case of tourism, the balance for 2006 has been fairly positive. The total number of foreign tourists again marked up an absolute all-time high in 2006. Nearly 58.4 million persons came to Spain as tourists, 4.5% more than in 2005. Total tourist spending during the first 11 months of the year was up by a very similar rate.
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Consumption still keeps up sharp drive and investment giving signs of great strength.
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On the demand side, we note that consumption is still showing very strong with a tendency to a slight slowdown but perhaps less than was at first expected. There are some exceptions, such as in the case of passenger cars which showed a drop of 2.0% in registrations compared with the year before. They just missed out on reaching the emblematic figure of 1.5 million units which they had gone above in the two previous years. Finally, the indicators for capital goods investment, at least going by available figures, still seem to reflect an upward growth rate.
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Labour market
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Record figure for registrations with Social Security in 2006
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Growth rate of total number of persons registered with Social Security tends to sharpen in final months of 2006.
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At the end of 2006, the Social Security system had more than 18,770,000 person registered (the highest figure ever at year-end), 3.4% more than at the end of 2005. In addition, the year-to-year growth rate tended to accelerate significantly in the final months, mainly thanks to the increase in registrations by Spaniards, a group that is subject to less variation than other persons registered, which fairly faithfully reflects the background trend in the figures.
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Out of the close to 614,100 new persons registered, 78% had Spanish nationality. In the foreign worker group, nearly half of the 135,000 new persons registered came from countries that are member states of the European Union (EU). The total number of EU foreign workers grew by 23.3%, a percentage much higher than the rest of foreign workers registered (4.9%), but at the end of the year the total figure for those of EU origin (350,000) was still clearly below that for other foreign workers (1,474,000).
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Total registrations in industry records first positive change since 2000.
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By economic activity sector, we should first point out the year-to-year growth marked up by industry which, while still of a modest nature (0.5%), was the first positive change recorded since 2000. The recovery of that sector is now beginning to show up, with the usual gaps in these cases, in the creation of jobs. In construction, one of the economic activities that has led job creation in recent years, the total number of registrations was up by 6.9%, a much more moderate rate than in 2005 (11.4%), a year largely affected by the process of giving regular work status to foreign workers.
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Real estate business and company services record highest growth in new registrations in absolute terms.
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In services, the area to show a higher growth rate was education, with an increase in registrations of 10.4% year-to-year. In absolute terms, however, the laurels go to real estate business and company services (which include temporary job companies), with more than 164,300 new persons registered and a percentage increase of 8.7%. One particular case is that of the trend in the total number of those registered among domestic employees, which reported a sharp year-to-year decrease in December 2006 (around 17.7%), due to the drop-out of foreign workers, which suggests something of a reverse in the process of giving normal work status carried out in 2005 with regard to this specific group.
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Those autonomous communities to record the highest change rates were Castile-La Mancha, Cantabria, Aragon and Galicia, all with growth of more than 4%, followed by Andalusia, Extremadura, Canary Islands, Castile-Leon, Murcia, Asturias and Madrid, which showed lower growth but still above the national average. Coming at the end were the Basque Country and Catalonia with growth only slightly above 2.4% in keeping with the greater relative weight of industry in those autonomous communities.
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Further drop in registered unemployment in 2006
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The total number of unemployed in December came close to a figure of 2,023,000. While that month usually brings a slight seasonal increase in unemployment, unemployment in December 2006 showed a slight overall drop (291 persons) in contrast, for example, with the increase recorded one year earlier (7,357 persons). Unemployment was down in three sectors. Services reported nearly 13,600 fewer unemployed, 1.1% less than the month before. In agriculture, the figure was down 2,400 (3.7%) while in those without previous employment it came to nearly 11,000 (4.8%).
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Registered unemployment undergoes minor decrease in December as opposed to normal trend that month.
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On the other hand, the increase in unemployment was concentrated in industry with nearly 6,600 new unemployed, 2.4% more than in the month before and especially in construction, with an increase of 20,000 (9.2%). Male unemployment in December was close to 804,300 persons following an increase of 27,200 that month (3.5% more than in the previous month) while female unemployment stood at 1,218,600, a monthly decrease of 27,500 (2.2%).
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Unemployment down by nearly 80,100 persons in past year.
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Compared with December 2005, registered unemployment was down by nearly 80,100 persons (the biggest drop recorded in the new statistical series begun in 2000) with widespread decreases in all economic sectors and population groups. In addition, the year-to-year rate of decrease (3.8% in December 2006) tended to increase progressively during the year, as shown in the following graph.
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In relative terms, the biggest annual decreases were reported in the following sectors and population groups: in industry, which showed a drop of 6.4%; among those under 25 years of age (12.3%); and in the male group (5.6%). Those autonomous communities to record a relatively higher drop were Aragon, Cantabria and Galicia, all with decreases in unemployment of more than 10%. At the opposite extreme came Andalusia and Catalonia with decreases of less than 1%.
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For first time, figure for permanent hiring contracts signed in one year goes above two million in 2006.
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Finally, we should put a positive value on the fact that in the course of 2006 more than 2,177,000 permanent hiring contracts were signed, 41.1% more than in 2005. For the first time, a figure of two million permanent hiring contracts was reached in just one year. Some 74% of all permanent contracts were for full-time work while this proportion was even higher under the heading of temporary work contracts (77%).
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Prices
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CPI ends 2006 with increase of 2.7%
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Spain’s economy showing notable adaptability in face of oil shock but average annual inflation up one decimal over 2005.
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The consumer price index (CPI) ended up with a year-to-year change of 2.7% in December, one point less than at the end of 2005 and the lowest rate in the past three years. During the year inflation in consumer prices showed slight ups and downs largely linked to the trend in oil prices. It thus rose to 4.2% in January when oil was going up sharply and it still stood at 4.0% in July. Nevertheless, from the beginning of August on oil prices began to drop going down to levels close to those in December 2005. This helped to ease inflation. However, the annual average change in the CPI was 3.5%, one decimal more than in 2005 and the highest since 2002. Given the sharp swings in oil prices, which would rise more than 35% over the end of 2005, Spain’s economy has shown a notable ability to adapt.
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Another volatile component of the CPI, unprocessed foods, ended 2005 with an annual increase of 4.5%, substantially above the general index but 7 decimals less than 12 months earlier. The price pressures shown in fresh foods may partly be attributed to increased demand due to the larger number of tourists and population increase. In fact, potatoes, chicken and beef head the list of most inflationary products and services in 2006 although other fresh foods, such as mutton, showed sharp drops.
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Services scarcely moderate rate of price increases.
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With regard to the more stable core of inflation, so-called underlying inflation, which includes services and non-energy manufactured goods, this showed an annual rise of 2.5% in December, two decimals more than the general CPI and 4 decimals below December 2005. Nevertheless, the annual average showed an increase of 2.9%, two decimals more than in 2005. Among the components, non-energy industrial products, which are subject to heavy competition in international markets, were the least inflationary marking up only 1.2% in December although this was one decimal more than the year before.
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On the other hand, services, which are generally more sheltered from foreign competition, scarcely changed in growth rate of prices (only 2 decimals less than in December 2005) and marked up an annual increase of 3.7%. It should be pointed out that services is a very broad group and, while education and hotel and restaurant trade prices were up by a notable 4.4%, communications were down 1.5%, thanks to strong competition among telephone service operators.
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Inflation prospects in coming months favourable so long as oil fails to get in way.
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In geographical terms, in 2006 five autonomous communities ended the year with inflation higher than the 2.7% average, namely La Rioja, Aragon, Andalusia, Catalonia and Balearic Islands. Catalonia and La Rioja have followed along this line in recent years. At the other end of the scale, Canary Islands and Extremadura regularly show inflation below the average.
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Inflation differential with Euro Area goes p to 1.4 points annual average in 2006 and hurts competitiveness.
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What are the prospects for 2007? The year has begun with the usual increases in regulated services. In January, domestic electrical power supply rose by 2.8% on average, along with natural gas and postal services. Rail fares and urban transport went up somewhat more as did some tobacco brands. Nevertheless, this upward move may be compensated by the drop in oil prices which have eased since the beginning of the year and a drop in unprocessed foods. If oil prices show no sharp rises, the annual inflation rate will likely drop slightly in coming months to then start rising in the second half-year to a level close to the current level.
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In addition, the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (EU) also showed an annual rise of 2.7% in December 2006. On annual average, this index rose by 3.6% in 2006, some 2 decimals more than the year before. Spain's year-to-year inflation in December was the second highest in the Euro Area, beaten only by Greece. The inflation differential with the Euro Area in December held at 0.8 percentage points although it stood at 1.4 points on annual average, 2 decimals more than in 2005. This meant a continued loss of competitiveness.
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What causes Spain’s inflation differential?
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Slower productivity growth lies behind Spain's higher inflation
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In the European Union chapter we studied inflation differentials in the Euro Area and some possible explanations. In this box, we shall concentrate more specifically on the case of Spain to understand the effects of persistent inflation differentials. The following graph shows the inflation differential between Spain and the other Euro Area countries between 1999 and 2006. The graph also includes inflation of the goods component in the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices. As may be seen, since 2002 the overall inflation differential between Spain and the Euro Area can be almost entirely explained by the differential in the goods component. In fact, the correlation between the two series as of 2002 is almost perfect.
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We must keep in mind that this evidence does not ignore the possible contribution of the services component, given that the goods component makes up 65% of the CPI. Nevertheless, while the services component has a higher inflation differential than the goods component, its contribution to the total differential is lower due to its lesser relative weight. Furthermore, the goods component of the HICP includes final prices paid by the consumer, and therefore includes elements of a non-tradable nature, such as distribution costs and the effect of indirect taxes that are not harmonized at the EMU level. However, if we use producer price indices for final consumption goods, the evidence is similar.
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If inflation differentials are mainly driven by the goods component and the evidence examined in the previous chapter suggests that the effects of price level convergence are not a dominant cause, how do we explain this result? A recent study using a modern macroeconometric model suggests that these differentials reflect productivity differences in the tradable goods sector between Spain and the rest of the EMU. On the other hand, demand factors and different mechanisms for setting prices in the EMU seem to have a much smaller quantitative effect.(1)
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As may be seen in the accompanying table, the real unit labour costs (that is, labour costs adjusted for inflation facing companies and labour productivity) grew faster in the goods sector in Spain than in the EMU. This was due both to higher growth in nominal wages in Spain compared with the EMU and to lower growth in labour productivity. This has led to an increase in real unit labour costs of 1.6% in the goods sector in Spain and to a decrease of 0.6% in the EMU. When real unit labour costs increase, this brings about a squeezing of margins, inflationary pressures (or both) in that sector. The table shows that real unit labour costs in the services sector have increased in a similar way in both Spain and the Euro Area (0.6% against 0.9%). This means that the big differences in inflation may be explained both by the performance in nominal wages and productivity in the goods sector between Spain and the EMU. On the other hand, there has been an erosion of real labour costs in the services sector of Spain’s economy. It is likely that the impact of immigration, which has been employed largely in the services sector and construction, may have made possible the containment of wages in real terms.
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Finally, let us answer the following question: What are the consequences of these inflation differentials between Spain and the rest of the Euro Area? In the first place, at the aggregate level, a higher inflation rate in Spain reduces the purchasing power of the population. Furthermore, the real interest rate will be lower than in the rest of the EMU, which, in a context of high growth and high inflation, implies the loss of the ability of monetary policy to be counter-cyclical and play a stabilizing role. Secondly, it is worth distinguishing the impact of the inflation differential between tradable and non-tradable goods (i.e. services). As we have shown, the differential may be explained by tradable goods and, given that labour costs in the goods sector have grown more than productivity in Spain compared with the rest of the EMU, this could imply a loss of competitiveness of Spain’s economy with possible future consequences for the growth of exports, GDP and employment. In the past it was possible to use competitive devaluations in order to correct these differentials whereas now this is no longer possible. Finally, the existence of rigidities in the economy (for example, the labour market) makes it more likely that there will be a gradual adjustment through inflation differentials than through wages.
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Prices
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Moderation in import prices
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Despite moderation in second quarter, average annual change in producer prices rises 4 decimals to 5.3% in 2006, highest increase since 2000.
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Producer prices as a whole held at the same level in the final months of 2006. As a result, the general index in December stood 3.6% above 12 months earlier, some 1.7 points less than the year before. The performance was quite different depending on the economic end-use of goods. Under pressure of international competition, consumer and capital goods showed moderate year-to-year increases of 2.0% and 2.6% respectively. After having risen by 15.6% in 2005, energy products ended the year with an increase of 2.4%. On the other hand, intermediate goods rose by 6.8%, a rate more than twice that for December 2005. The increase in intermediate goods reflects the rise in raw materials, especially in metals. Metallurgy thus rose by 17.2%.
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The improvement in inflation measured by producer prices largely came about in the second half of the year largely thanks to trend in energy prices. In fact, the average increase in producer prices was 5.3%, some 4 decimals more than for 2005 as a whole and the highest increase since 2000. It is hard to see the pressures still seen in intermediate goods prices being entirely shifted to capital goods and consumer goods due to foreign competition. In addition, prices of intermediate goods will tend to ease if there is some slackening in raw materials markets. Producer prices therefore should not greatly worsen the trend in consumer prices in coming months.
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Import prices down in November putting annual change at 2.4%.
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In addition, import prices were down in November, according to figures from the survey of importers carried out by the National Institute of Statistics. The year-to-year change rate of these prices continued to drop, going to 2.4%, 6 decimals less than in October. It should be pointed out that consumer durables were down by 2.7% compared with November 2005 due to sharp competition in world markets, whereas non-durable consumer goods rose by only 0.5% in the same period. On the other hand, intermediate goods rose by 8.6% in the past 12 months.
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Foreign sector
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Balance of payments: further widening of current account deficit
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Current account deficit looks like ending 2006 at 9% of GDP due to continuous widening of trade deficit.
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In cumulative balance for the year, the run-away current account deficit rose to 72.52 billion euros in October, that is, a level 32% higher than in the same period in 2005. What was the main cause? The usual factor in recent times was at play, namely the widening of the trade deficit that in the first ten months of 2006 was already 66.92 billion euros (19% more than in the same period the year before). The last straw was the drop in the services surplus and the increase in the incomes deficit.
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This meant a further increase in the growth rate of the current account imbalance. As pointed out in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development’s recent annual report on Spain, while the funding of this deficit is not at threat due to fact that the country belongs to the single currency area, it is indeed indicative of the current pressures on Spain’s economy. According to the OECD’s own estimates, 2006 will have closed with a current account deficit equivalent to 9% of the gross domestic product.
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Net inflows of portfolio investment come close to 172 billion euros in first 10 months of 2006.
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Key interest is thus focused on the trend in the trade deficit while its correction depends on easing or not easing the imbalance in the balance of payments. The annual trend as of November confirms the following model. The higher growth of imports (14% higher than one year ago) is more than compensated by the increase in exports which were up by 11% year-to-year. The combination of the drive in domestic demand and problems of foreign competitiveness (which prevent Spanish exporters from taking full advantage of the recovery of European markets) is an excessive hurdle in the way of correcting the negative trade balance.
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With regard to the services balance, this has grown worse largely due to the lower contribution from tourism. As of October, the tourism heading was down by close to 4% year-to-year. The incomes balance recorded a deficit of 17.84 billion euros (20% higher than in the first ten months of 2005). On the other hand, the widening of the deficit in the transfers balance was marginally less compared with the situation one month earlier.
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Finally, the performance of the financial balance continues to be dominated by the notable surplus in portfolio investment which reached a cumulative figure of 171.97 billion euros as of October, a figure in contrast to the surplus of 56.63 billion euros recorded in the period January-October 2005. On the other hand, net outflows for direct investment were nearly four times higher than the positive figure one year earlier which stood at 39.64 billion euros.
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Savings and financing
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Slight slowdown in credit
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After four years at negative rates we are returning to period of positive real interest rates...
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The progressive rise in interest rates brought about by the upturn by the European Central Bank beginning in December 2005 seems to be starting to have its effects on the growth of credit. The 1-year Euribor, the main reference index for mortgage loans, rose to 3.92% in December 2006, an increase of 114 basis points in the past year. As a result, we are going back to a period of positive real interest rates following four years of negative rates. In this environment, financing to the private sector rose by 23.7% in the 12 months ending in November, 3 decimals less than one month earlier, although this is still a high growth rate.
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...which is beginning to slow down financing to private sector.
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This slight slowdown showed up both in companies and households. Funding granted to non-financial companies rose by 27.1% in the period November 2005-November 2006 which represents a slight moderation after reaching the highest growth rate since at least as far back as 1996. Nevertheless, credit to companies continues to rise at a sharp rate. Leasing in order to finance capital goods and real estate rose by 16.3% in the 12 months ending in November, thus showing some increase. Commercial credit, used to finance working capital, showed robust growth although somewhat lower at 10.1%.
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The figures for credit broken down by purpose recently published by the Bank of Spain make possible a more detailed analysis by economic sector although they refer to the third quarter of 2006. It is noted that the main driving force in demand for bank credit was construction with a spectacular increase of 35.0% in the past 12 months, more than 5 points above the figure for the previous quarter. Services followed with a year-to-year rise of 32.0%. However, it should be pointed out that the biggest increase in this heading came in real estate business of developers which showed an annual increase of 49.1% which, while slightly lower than the high recorded in March, was a higher rate than in the preceding quarter. In fact, the growth in services excluding real estate business would drop to 19.4% which, in any case, was the highest rate since the beginning of the Nineties. Industry, in turn, showed a rise of 13.3%, some 2.8 points more than in June 2006.
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Credit granted to households continues to ease off gradually although it still showed a year-to-year increase of 19.5% in November. The slowdown was due mainly to housing with loans going from an annual growth rate of 24.6% in November 2005 to 20.2% twelve months later. In addition, credit for buying consumer durables (cars, motorcycles, furniture, appliances, etc.) rose by 13.2% since the third quarter of 2005 to the same quarter in 2006. In spite of showing a notable growth rate, this represents something of a slowdown seeing that this rate is 2.4 points lower than in the second quarter.
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Default, however, marks up new all-time low in November.
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The default rate for credit to the private sector as a whole for the moment is holding at low levels in spite of the increase in loan interest rates. In November the rate was down for the third consecutive month going to 0.74% thus marking up a new all-time low.
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Bank deposits win out over mutual funds in 2006
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Household savings still not recovering...
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Household savings continue to show no recovery. In the third quarter of 2006, the savings rate of households and non-profit organizations (religious institutions, trade unions, NGOs, etc.) stood at 7.9% of disposable income. If we consider the average for the last four quarters, a step that makes it possible to get around the seasonal nature of the figures, the savings rate dropped to 9.3%, three decimals less than in the previous period and marking up the lowest level since 1999 at least. This drop in individual savings was due to growth in consumption (7.6%) higher than disposable income (5.9%) during the summer. As a result, given the important and growing investment in housing, the need for financing in the case of households rose to 4.7% of the quarterly gross domestic product (GDP). In turn, the need for financing of non-financial companies rose to 10% of the quarterly GDP.
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...although bank deposits more attractive.
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This trend meant an increase in financing to the private sector higher than that for corresponding financial assets. Nevertheless, bank deposits continue to grow at a high rate showing twice the growth in the Euro Area. The return on bank deposits kept increasing gradually in 2006 reflecting the progressive rise in the European Central Bank interest rate. As a result, as of September, the average return on new time deposits was higher than the inflation rate. Furthermore, the financial institutions diversified the nature of deposits in innovative ways. In this way, they have been increasing the attractiveness of bank deposits.
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Average annual yield on mutual funds hits 5% in 2006.
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The sharp growth of bank deposits came about to the detriment of shares in mutual funds. In 2006, the assets of mutual funds increased by only 3.45% for a total of 254.3 billion euros. This may be attributed to capital gains seeing that for the year as a whole there were net withdrawals for a value of 2.43 billion euros, largely concentrated in the fourth quarter. Where the biggest outflows of money took place was in bond-based funds under the effect of low bond yields. The average annual yield on mutual funds was 5.0% but there was a notable spread. National share-based funds headed the classification with an extraordinary 32.1% while at the other extreme Japanese share-based funds reported capital losses of 6.4%. In spite of net withdrawals of shares in mutual funds, the number of participants, estimated by the number of accounts, rose by 3.1% to reach a total of 8,819,809 at the end of last year.
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