Research Dept. News
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Monthly Report, num 351 - November 2011
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International review - Commodities
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Trends shift downwards, except oil
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Oil falls to 108.6 dollars but avoids the losses of other commodities.
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The price of crude fell slightly between 20 September and 20 October, down 2.3%, taking it to 108.60 dollars per barrel (Brent quality, for one-month deliveries), 17.3% above its level at the start of the year and 31.0% above its level a year ago. Although the month-s total shows a drop we should note that the price of oil rose by 7.2% from 4 to 20 October.
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The fall in commodities is due to expectations of lower global growth. Added to the weak growth of advanced economies is the gentle slowdown of China, with the inherent expectation that the Asian giant will reduce its commodity purchases.
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Metal prices are particularly hard hit due to the slowdown in China.
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But these drops are unequal. While oil remained relatively firm, possibly helped by the uncertain situation in North Africa and the Middle East, the CRB commodity index fell by 4.4% between 20 September and 20 October. The worst hit were metals, more closely related to China-s progress. Nickel lost 15.2%; aluminium, 9.8%, as its energy intensity was able to mitigate its fall; and copper, particularly affected by larger Chinese stocks than expected, was down 18.8%. There were also sharp falls in precious metals, with palladium and platinum losing 17.0% and 16.0%, respectively. Gold was no exception either, down 10.3%. The falls were less unanimous in the case of food, with decreases for wheat, barley and coffee but an increase for rice.
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