Research Dept. News
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Monthly Report, num 352 - December 2011
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International review - Commodities
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Oil withstands the troubled waters
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Oil remains at 108.5 dollars and refuses to fall.
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The price of crude resisted falling between 20 October and 22 November, dropping a minimal 0.5%, taking it to 108.50 dollars per barrel (Brent quality, for one-month deliveries), 16.7% higher than the start of the year and 29.6% higher than last year's level.
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The downward trend consolidates in spite of sporadic upswings.
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Oil prices still refused to fall, unlike the rest of commodities. This was primarily due to supply-demand factors. The International Energy Agency predicts that, in 2012, oil prices will remain above 100 dollars per barrel with a global demand that has altered very little in spite of lower growth and low stock levels. A second factor behind expensive oil is the ongoing political tensions in North Africa and the Middle East. Particularly important in this case is the possibility of escalating conflict in the Iranian nuclear programme. With 4.3 million barrels a day, Iran is the world's second largest producer and an interruption in its production would particularly affect China and India, the destination for one third of all its exports.
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Falls predominate in the rest of commodities, affected by lower global growth and the slowdown in China's demand. The CRB index dropped by 3.0% between 20 October and 22 November. Precious metals picked up in the last week of October but have been correcting downwards since then. Copper was also up 21.5% at the end of October, in reaction to the sharp drop in September, afterwards returning to the fold and falling by 10.6%.
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