Research Dept. News
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Monthly Report, num 355 - March 2012
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International review - Commodities
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Careful with oil - it's on the rise
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Oil prices rise to 123.5 dollars, intensifying their upward trend.
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Oil appreciated by 11.6% between 23 January and 23 February, intensifying its upward trend and reaching 123.50 dollars per barrel (Brent quality, for one-month deliveries), 15.3% above its level at the start of the year, equalling the rise for the whole of 2011 and 8.3% higher than its level a year ago, when the Libyan crisis erupted.
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The trend is upwards although base metal prices ease somewhat.
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Instability in the Strait of Hormuz, resulting from the tensions between Iran and western powers, is an upward pressure that might last throughout 2012 and which, in turn, is reinforced by strong demand from emerging economies. All this means that crude is unlikely to fall from the benchmark price of 115 dollars per barrel. Expensive oil that hinders the growth of many economies, either because it affects consumer budgets or worsens the trade balances of advanced economies.
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The rest of the commodities continued an upward trend in general, although less sharply than in January, perhaps affected by doubts regarding China's growth. The CRB index rose by 2.0% between 23 January and 23 February with precious metals appreciating the most. Platinum, which is still cheaper than gold, rose by 11.2% in the month, accumulating gains of 27.7% since the start of the year. This could be an indication that Europe's car industry, which uses platinum in diesel engine catalysers, might have bottomed out. Base metals took a breather in their appreciation apart from aluminium, whose energy intensity in its production makes it particularly sensitive to energy prices. For their part, food staples also rose, led by wheat.
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