Research Dept. News
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Monthly Report, num 356 - April 2012
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International review - Commodities
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Oil calls a halt, for the moment
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Oil remains at 122.8 dollars, calling a halt to its upward trend.
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Oil halted its upward trend and kept its price almost the same between 22 February and 22 March, falling by just 0.2% to 122.80 dollars per barrel (Brent quality, for one-month deliveries), 14.7% higher than the start of the year, equalling the rise for 2011 as a whole and 5.8% above the level of a year ago, when the Libyan crisis had reached its peak.
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Saudi Arabia's decision to increase crude production to offset the fall in Iranian exports, backed by the release of US and UK reserves, is the main reason why prices have momentarily stabilized, highlighting the widespread interest in preventing rising oil prices from aggravating the slowdown in the world's aggregate demand.
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Price rises are stalling but it's too soon to speak of any change in trend.
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The rest of commodities performed unevenly, interrupting the upward trends of the start of the year. Such small decreases, however, make it difficult to speak of any change in trend. The CRB index grew by an imperceptible 0.2% between 22 February and 22 March but falls predominated among metals and foods, with the exception of iron, steel and rice. Among metals, of note were the falls in gold and nickel, namely 6.7% and the 8.2% respectively, while among foods the 10.4% fall in coffee prices was particularly significant.
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