Research Dept. News
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Monthly Report, num 357 - May 2012
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International review - Commodities
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A change of direction for oil?
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Oil falls by 4.7% in one month and goes below its level of a year ago.
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Oil fell slightly between 20 March and 20 April, with a drop of 4.7%, standing at 118.60 dollars per barrel (Brent quality, for one-month deliveries). Crude was therefore 10.7% above its level at the start of 2012 but 4.8% below its level of a year ago, when the Libyan crisis had already reached its peak, which should help to push down the CPI of most economies.
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Oil prices seem to have taken a downward turn. The main factor could be Saudi Arabia, which increased its production to 10 million barrels a day, the highest level in 30 years. In addition, the International Energy Agency predicts conditions of supply and demand that should lead to further price reductions, although this is being hindered by the tensions generated by Iran's nuclear programme. Moreover, the weakness of the euro area is also pushing down demand for crude.
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The change in direction for commodities is confirmed.
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The rest of the commodities joined crude's downward slide. The CRB index fell by 3.0% between 20 March and 20 April, its biggest drop since May 2010. Among metals, aluminium and nickel lost close to 8.0%, while copper was down by 4.3%, affected by the slowdown in China and the revelation that the Asian giant has a larger stock than expected. The exception to these decreases was gold, which only fell by a minimal 0.4%. Falls also predominated among foods, with decreases in the price of wheat, sugar and coffee; rice being the exception, up by 1.9%.
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